A tight race ahead in Spain’s historic election

A glance at opinion polls in Spanish newspapers for the past few months would convince you that nobody really has any clue what will happen the day after Spaniards go to the polls to elect their new prime minister in just under three week’s time on 20th December.

It is without doubt the start of a new political era in Spain – a four-horse race ending the to-ing and fro-ing between the two traditional socialist and conservative parties, PSOE and PP. But anything more than a sketchy outline and you’re playing the fickle game of political predictions.

Political deadlock in the polls between Spain’s ruling conservatives, the Socialist opposition and centre-right newcomer Ciudadanos

The new centre-right Ciudadanos and leftist Podemos parties have everything to gain in December’s vote as they fight for their first seats in parliament’s lower house after great successes in European and local elections. Are they really the new mainstream left and right of politics – or just a protest vote content with pointing the finger at previous governments?

Earlier tonight, the leaders of three of the parties battled it out in an online debate hosted by Spain’s leading newspaper El País.

That’s right – three leaders, not four. Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy has made no secret of the fact he dislikes debates, especially against the two new political kids on the block.

He says to Spaniards that he doesn’t need to debate with his younger and far less experienced rivals. It’s a tactic to set himself out of the crowd that may just work out.

So, the debate empty chaired Rajoy. Instead, he appeared on Spanish news with a one-on-one political grilling. But the debate continued despite this elephant in the room.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, the absent leader in tonight’s debate

What Spaniards will be doing in the next few weeks is testing the credibility of their political leader hopefuls, as they do the rounds on television shows and appear at noisy campaign rallies.

How far will these untried and untested new parties stand up to scrutiny and be able to govern a nation of over 40 million, managing its economic recovery and the existential debate of Spain given the calls for independence in Catalonia?

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has played a clever game in campaigning on Spain’s unity and his government’s work in steadying the ship of the economy.

He’s hoping that will stand up to his political rivals who talk of proposals and solutions without ever having been in power.

At the same time, the spectre of corruption scandals and a poor record in solving Spain’s massive unemployment problem – at 22 per cent – will be unavoidable.

What was apparent from tonight’s debate was the unanimity in building a “new politics”. What was also clear is that there are many different proposals.

It went right down to Spain’s response to ISIS. Both PSOE and Ciudadanos insisted Spain couldn’t be left out of the Western alliance to bomb Islamic State. Podemos’ policy, meanwhile, stuck out like a sore thumb. Iglesias asked – what did bombs solve in Iraq or Libya? He insisted the group’s arms and finances had to be hit instead.

What is certain is that Spain is likely to be in political deadlock come the end of the year. No one party at the moment has a majority and a coalition agreement of some kind will probably need to be found.

But any pact has already been ruled out by Ciudadanos, whose leader Albert Rivera says he won’t prop up any party, instead holding them account in an opposition role.

Rivera is campaigning on a break with what the “traditional” parties have done to Spain.

They want to create a “new era”, a “new project” for the country. It’s a move which has caused their share of the vote to rocket, as the hopes of Podemos have dipped, peaking far too soon.

The climate of uncertainty about the future of Spain on a map- read the independence movement in Catalonia – raises the debate around Spain’s constitution, drawn up in 1978 and which has been left untouched since the transition to democracy following the death of Franco.

Spain’s 1978 Constitution, written three years after the death of Franco

Parties agreed about reforming it, but differences lie in where to draw the line on independence. The leaders talked of reform, dialogue, political regeneration, a new Spain. It makes for so many soundbites.

A poll published on Sunday showed a three-way tie between the ruling PP party, the Socialist opposition and newcomer Ciudadanos, the squiggly lines converging to a single point – 22 per cent – redrawing the political map.

It’s just another clue that many in Spain still don’t know who to turn to, but what we do know is that they have turned away from the traditional parties – in their droves.

Will 20th December 2015 be remembered for the end of “old” politics and the start of a new page for Spain, or more of the same – for good or for bad?

A country with many economic, social and political challenges, it is a moment of history in the making.

More: A look at the demographics behind Spanish opinion polls – El Español (in Spanish)

 

 

What next for Paris?

A nation still in mourning after Friday’s attacks, with many in Paris unsure what will happen next – this the second attack on the city this year, targeting those who were simply enjoying daily life at a concert or restaurant.

So what does the future hold for the capital and the rest of France?

Using clips from BBC radio, I’ve made a 3-minute package asking how Paris and France can get back to normal.

 

The Catalan independence cataclysm

Forget for a moment the huge hype and expectation surrounding today. Hearing the calls from the Catalan parliament for a declaration of independence, the first steps towards a new European state and then a constitutional block from Madrid, you’d think it nothing out of the ordinary for a secessionist movement with more momentum than ever before.

The language was just as uncompromising and provocative, talking of the “democratic disconnection” of Catalonia from the rest of Spain.

The Catalan parliament’s approval of a move towards independence within 18 months was met with the waving of Catalan senyera flags, some deputies on their feet in applause, a minority sober in defeat instead waving the national Spanish flag. Yet proceedings were noticeably much more muted than in the past.

Today’s constitutional earthquake will send tremors all the way to Madrid as Barcelona hastily embarks on setting up state institutions such as an independent social security system and tax authority within just thirty days.

But have things really changed in Catalonia as to the likelihood of independence?

What will follow is the next episode in the strained relationship between this region and the Madrid government, who will slap down the rules of the Constitution, with the courts preparing a case against leaders in Barcelona.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy appeared in front of cameras minutes after the vote repeating that “the government will not allow this to continue” and saying he will use all legal and political means at his disposal to put a stop to the process.

The inconstitutional snub was echoed by Socialist Party leader Pedro Sánchez, who will meet Rajoy on Tuesday to discuss their counter-attack.

Sánchez said: “The majority of Catalans don’t want secession. Breaking the law is denying democracy.”

Regardless, the document says it will ignore any such threats from instutitions of the Spanish state, including the constitutional court.

The embattled Catalan President, Artur Mas

The extraordinary events in the Catalan parliament in Barcelona also addressed the elephant in the room – the future of president Artur Mas, whose political future looks to be hanging in the balance.

The CUP, the coalition partner of Junts Pel Sí, the pro-independence coalition who won a majority in September’s elections oppose Mr Mas serving a third term as President.

Negotiations with the leftist,  anti-establishment, anti-EU party haven’t got very far since the elections, but Mas is trying his best to win them over with policy sweeteners in what critics call a vanity project.

They are calling for another leader to be appointed, perhaps Junts Pel Sí leader Raul Romeva. But if an agreement isn’t found, yet more elections will have to be called for March next year.

Mas has embodied the defiant push for Catalan independence, buoyed by a pro-independence win in the September elections on a seat basis, but falling short of a majority he would have needed in a proper referendum – pro-independence parties won 47.8 per cent of the vote.

Nonetheless, beginning his address to the Parlament, he said the ballot boxes had spoken, legitimising the majority vote that was to come.

Critics of Mas say he has isolated himself from Catalan public opinion, which evidently remains deeply divided on the issue of secession. Business leaders too say that with his majority only assured by the CUP party, he has handed the independence movement to leftist radicals.

Anti-independence party Ciudadanos, the second-largest party in the Catalan parliament that looks set to rock the boat in Spain’s general election on 20th December, ironically said that ongoing cases of corruption – of which Mr Mas is part – have nothing to do with the process.

They warned today’s events were the greatest threat to Spain’s democracy for the past thirty years.

The last election is only as important as the next. With the make-up of Spain’s next government unclear and with coalition agreements expected to extend well into January, parties of all colours are exploiting the Catalan situation to gain votes.

Aside from Spain’s economic recovery, the unity of Spain is a key election trump card, especially for Rajoy. He wants to be seen as the leader who stands for stability and managing the breakaway Catalan region.

The constitutional fallout from the defiance on show could mean tough financial sanctions – even on individual leaders, which could potentially mean prison sentences.

It could also sour any potential negotiations between leaders in Catalonia and the next Spanish government.

Pro-independence politicians remain more defiant and determined than ever. For Madrid, it’s another case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.

This struggle of democracy against democracy is a long way from ending.

A question of taste for Charlie Hebdo

The controversial Charlie Hebdo this week, criticised by the Kremlin. Credit: Charlie Hebdo

Just a few weeks ago, outgoing columnist at the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, Patrick Pelloux,  exclaimed: “Charlie Hebdo is dead”.

You would hardly think so after seeing the magazine’s two cartoons this week illustrating last Saturday’s downing of a Russian passenger flight over the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt, which killed 224 people.

The first depicted the smoking wreckage of the plane and a scattering of body parts surrounding a passenger’s skull wearing sunglasses which pointed to the “the dangers of Russian low-cost flights”. It was a gory, unforgiving image, even in cartoon form.

The other showed the plane’s debris – including broken bits of wings and the body of a passenger – falling on an Islamic State militant with the caption, “The Russian air force intensifies its air strikes”, after the country started its military operation at the end of September in an effort to prop up the Assad regime.

The Kremlin took no time at all in addressing the media on Friday to denounce the cartoons as “pure blasphemy”.

A spokesman from the Russian foreign ministry said they had nothing to do with democracy or freedom of expression, deeming the cartoons “unacceptable”.

Meanwhile, social media in Russia has been in uproar, with the hashtag “I am not Charlie” used to criticise the poor taste of the cartoons.

One tweet read: “Insane cynicism and a mockery of the memory of the victims of this terrible tragedy.”

The graphic depiction just under a week after Russia’s most deadly terrorist attack on its own people predictably touched a nerve. One of the country’s most popular social networks – VK – said the cartoons had been the most discussed topic among its 100 million active users.

Russian politicians have also taken to the airwaves to echo the Kremlin’s criticism.

This is a magazine which is continuing to sharpen its teeth and irreverence, nine months after gunmen stormed the magazine’s offices shooting twelve people dead.

Its editor-in-chief, Gérard Biard, came to the defence of the questionable taste of the cartoons. He said: “the Kremlin was using Charlie Hebdo to make a point.”

“They want to draw attention to two miserable cartoons and spark a controversy that’s unwarranted. It’s the usual manipulation of a totalitarian power”, he told AFP.

“We respect more values than those in power in Russia, like democracy, secularism and freedom of expression”, Biard said.

The terrorist attack back in January was seen as an attempt to threaten one of France’s most basic principles – freedom of expression, which the magazine displays in every issue.

It was a value that the French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius defended on Friday with direct reference to this week’s controversial Charlie cartoons.

Fabius said: “Freedom of expression is a pillar of French democracy. There is no question of touching it.”

He defended the magazine’s illustrations, saying front covers of Charlie Hebdo may offend other countries, but in France – where there are different religious and social contexts – “they don’t pose any problems”.

The magazine has turned to political satire and current affairs for inspiration for its front page, steering clear of sensitive religious cartoons. Some worry this is self-censorship creeping into the magazine.

Most recently in the firing line has been President François Hollande’s make-or-break climate conference later this month in Paris, which commentators say will significantly shape his political legacy. This unpopular president is an easy target for derision, seen as flip-flopping on running the country.

Ten years after heavy rioting across the country, Charlie Hebdo said the next firestarter would be far-right Front National party leader Marine Le Pen – a frequent front cover star – in the presidential elections in 2017.

The cover of a recent edition of Charlie Hebdo. It reads: “Welcome, migrants! You’re at home here!”
Credit: Charlie Hebdo.

The flow of migrants to Europe has been a frequent cover story this year in a typically imaginative style. One September issue shows former news anchor Claire Chazal, who says ISIS treats her better than her employer after she was fired from her job.

Another depicts a migrant who had come to France to learn Latin, poking fun at controversial school reforms.

The magazine is now on a more even footing, through the weight of trauma among its staff is never too far from the surface.

Sales are up and it has recently moved into new offices, but so are the death threats. Staff live under around-the-clock protection by police and bodyguards.

Infighting and depression have spread among the survivors of January’s attack, arguing over finances and the magazine’s future as millions pour into its coffers.

Just last month, Charlie Hebdo relaunched its website, offering readers a daily cartoon on all manner of subjects.

The site is even venturing beyond France’s borders with an English-language section of some of its editorials.

Pelloux, a columnist who left the magazine last month, citing fatigue said: “A part of us has gone with the attacks.”

At the beginning of this year, Charlie Hebdo was ripped apart from the inside.

Its resistance to worldwide pressure and controversy, they hope, won’t allow the magazine to simply fade away.

Time is no healer for France’s banlieues

It was one of France’s darkest periods in recent times. Ten years ago today, three weeks of violence spread across Paris and throughout the country following the accidental deaths of  two teenagers in a police chase. It underlined deep divisions and inequalities in some of France’s and Paris’ most neglected neighbourhoods, problems dating back to the eighties that many say still haven’t gone away.

Teenagers Zyed Benna and Bouna Traore came from Clichy-sous-Bois, a poor immigrant suburb of Paris effectively cut off from the rest of the world without any road or rail links. There was – and is – nothing there to keep kids entertained, residents say.

Killed by accident: teenagers Zyed Benna and Bouna Traore

The two, together with a friend, Muhittin Altun, found themselves near a break-in as police officers arrived to investigate. They ran to hide, headed for a power substation. They were apparently aware of the danger as they climbed over the wall. Zyed, 17, and Bouna, 15, were both electrocuted.

Tensions quickly rose, which protesters said were because of a frustration with high unemployment and police brutality.

What followed were three weeks of violence, which within days of uprisings in and around Paris spread to many other French cities like Bordeaux, Toulouse and Lyon.

In total, 10,000 cars were burnt, 300 buildings destroyed or damaged, 6,000 arrests and 1,300 people serving a prison sentence.

France’s difficult ethnic and social tensions under the spotlight in 1995 film La Haine

Such problems – and reactions – served as inspiration for one of France’s all-time most popular films, La Haine, from 1995, which depicted the struggles of daily life in an abandoned Paris suburb through its three multi-ethnic protagonists: a Jew, an Arab and an African. They wander the streets of the monochrome city after their friend is beaten by police and in a coma in hospital. The one message of the film – la haine attire la haine, hatred breeds hatred. As relevant to its main protagonist, who flaunts a gun stolen from a policeman, as to a largely ignorant and uncompassionate police force.

One of the key themes of the film was the crisis of French identity for first and second generation immigrants. For them, just how relevant are those typically French values of liberty, equality and fraternity?

Trapped in a cycle of crime, often drug or gang related, the feeling of alienation is in many cases understandable.

The climate in today’s France isn’t helping either. An economy dragging its heels, with growth so scarce it can’t create jobs, no matter how much politicians try to sound optimistic.

In years gone by, neighbourhoods have seen billions of euros of investment from the state, ultimately without results. Merely throwing money at a difficult area is not even scratching the surface of a multitude of social issues.

Unemployment in France hasn’t fallen substantially from around ten per cent in three years. Data from Insée in 2013 showed unemployment among immigrants – those born outside France with or without French nationality who often populate the deprived Parisian banlieues – was just under double the figure for people born in France. A lack of qualifications, the inability to reach public-sector jobs and discrimination are all factors behind such glaring inequality.

Add in the complex political dynamic and the future looks all the more bleak. The rise of far right politics with the Front National has made a minority hostile to migrants, even if the FN rejects the notion of being xenophobic.

The perceived threat of Islam, behind the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January, has made France feel vulnerable amid the rush of national unity. Those responsible for the attacks, brothers Saïd and Chérif Kouachi, were born in France to Algerian parents. Chérif had been involved in jihadist gang and was arrested in January 2005 when he and another man were heading for Syria.

In prison, he met Amedy Coulibaly, a radicalised Muslim, who killed a policewoman in the hours following the Charlie Hebdo attack on 7th January. The following day, he killed four people after holding up a Kosher supermarket. Addressing his hostages, he said: “I am Amedy Coulibaly, Malian and Muslim. I belong to the Islamic State.”

What, then, drove these French nationals to attack their own?

Many blame a failure to integrate disaffected youth, an inability to break down the iron curtain separating out-of-town areas of Paris from the rest of France.

In the wake of the Charlie Hebdo attacks, Prime Minister Manuel Valls conceded: “There is, indeed, social, ethnic and territorial apartheid in France.”

Yet the Front National went further and capitalised on the crisis, blaming “20 years of mistakes” in immigration and Europe which had provided a breeding ground for radical Islam – even proposing a referendum on the death penalty.

One solution that sees broad agreement across the political spectrum is the value of secularism (laïcité), separating religion from state, and in schools, becoming tougher on discipline.

But the problem is at worse psychological – and deep-seated. Discrimination breeds hate, which breeds violence.

During the 2005 riots, the Interior Minister at the time, Nicolas Sarkozy, was accused for inflammatory language, reportedly calling the rioters “racaille”, loosely translated as “rabble”.

The vulnerable, voiceless and disaffected in France cannot be filled with optimism as they look at the rise of the hostile extreme-right and no movement on social mobility. Inequality – and the threat to public order – is going nowhere.

MORE | Timeline: French riots (BBC News)

A false start for France’s presidential election

The battle lines are drawn in a hotly contested presidential election – that’s a year and a half away.

How far France swings to the centre-right or the extreme right will be the big headline when the country goes to the polls in spring 2017.

The second – how big the defeat for France’s most unpopular president, François Hollande. He can do little more than survive the political storm to come, as the economy stutters along. However, there are encouraging signs from business and confidence as the effects of controversial reforms start to bear fruit.

That’s not to forget important elections this December in France’s regions which are the last test for parties before the country elects a new President. Campaigning is already in full force.

President Hollande addressing the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, Front National leader Marine Le Pen stood up in the European Parliament in Strasbourg in front of Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, armed with a double blow.

Hollande and Merkel in turn addressed a room full of Euro MPs, calling for more Europe at a time when the continent is more divided than ever over the influx of migrants and refugees. It was a speech that many deemed lacklustre. For Ms Le Pen, it provided her a platform to deliver some memorable, hardhitting soundbites. She was on a roll in her three-minute address.

Le Pen called Hollande Germany’s “vice-chancellor” who had sold out to a Berlin-dominated Europe. And to Mrs Merkel, she said: “I don’t recognise you, Madam.”

Hollande mustered some steel, saying the EU was a bastion against the “return of nationalism, populism [and] extremism”.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls characterised the situation with the FN as “worrying”. From the opinion polls to the division in the party and the left of politics, Valls recognises the more-than-credible threat from the rise of Le Pen – he is not alone.

Sarkozy’s ally, Nadine Morano, who called France “a country of the white race”

Nicolas Sarkozy has himself been embroiled in an internal affair this week which threatens the Republican party’s image just a few months since its rebrand. One deputy, Nadine Morano, has been pulled as a candidate from December’s regional elections after calling France “a country of the white race”. Only a few days later did Mr Sarkozy see the comments of one of his most loyal allies unacceptable. It is a huge deal for the party seized upon by their opponents.

Sarkozy is all too aware of the battle with the Front National. It is a tricky balancing act to appeal to FN voters and at the same time not lose moderate support in the important centre ground. One pollster said: “People prefer the original to the copy.” Sarkozy runs the risk of overstepping the line by putting FN sentiment into the political mainstream by simply legitimising them. No such threat from Mr Hollande, whose days, Sarkozy said, were numbered.

There’s no topic more divisive than that of immigration, despite the country’s insecure economic footing as Europe’s second-largest. The FN’s anti-immigration stance is one which is likely to see them win in the north of the country as well as its traditional stronghold in the south-east at the least.

Air France executive rescued by security in a violent protest in Paris

It is also a week which saw scenes of violent protests at Air France in Paris over 3,000 jobs lost plastered across international newspapers and TV screens. An shameful reminder of the French stereotype of going out on strike which turned ugly. Hollande said such images had “serious consequences” for the image of France. For critics, it served as an opportunity to point to France’s footdragging on reforms. A large section of French business has long grown inefficient and uncompetitive. They’re only starting to realise that they have some way to go to regain lost ground in the global economy.

This electoral rollercoaster ride shows the damage of untimely blunders in the unforgiving political arena. In the words of Nicolas Sarkozy, it is a fight to the death.

More: Air France turbulence may end in crash, The Independent

Best sites for European news

2015 has been a watershed year for Europe, battling economic ruin in Greece to the migrant and refugee crises. It has divided Europe along north and south and east and west lines.

Here are the best European news sites to get behind the headlines and understand the often complex workings of the continent.

Politico Europe – a site originally catering for American politics, this Brussels-based site is excellent for analysis and stories you wouldn’t ever usually see elsewhere

Bloomberg Europe – an easy to understand snapshot of European finances and what it means for the continent

Euronews – Based in Lyon, this site provides excellent video and pictures to cover a wide range of stories from Europe

The Guardian – balanced, well-written stories and features from correspondents around the continent

Others:

El País English – Spanish news in English

Financial Times – paywall (£)

France 24

Catalonia – and Spain’s – uncharted territory

Relations between Catalonia and the rest of Spain have changed forever, whatever the result of today’s unprecedented elections.

The make-up of the Catalan parliament will have been decided by a huge voter turnout – a triumph of democracy.

Tonight’s exit poll gives an absolute majority to separatist coalition Junts Pel Sí, with the help of far-left, anti-EU, anti-NATO party CUP, who are this election’s kingmakers. It is an election with the most obvious of outcomes, though caution remains, as even the two parties together may not gain 50% of the votes.

A nation waiting in nail-biting anticipation of how Madrid will react the morning after the night before. With over 60% of Catalans having voted, separatists will vaunt their firm mandate. How ambitious will they be with their demands? The tone of debate will be fiery to say the least.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will play the constitutional card in an election which he has scorned for having become a de facto yes or no vote.

His conservative party will have roughly the same number of seats as Sí Que Es Pot, a coalition of leftist parties which in their political youth would have hoped to have made far more of an impact. Both will be disappointed.

The extent of victory for separatists will damage the prime minister’s credibility after refusing any movement on Spain’s current constitutional arrangements. Will Rajoy change his tune – faced with this electoral explosion?

While financial markets and bond yields will likely wobble as they have done already, Catalan independence is still a while away. While the plan is to start the task of building national structures within Catalonia as part of an 18-month roadmap to complete secession, there are lots of hopes but no guarantees. Junts Pel Sí will plough on ahead with or without the permission of Madrid.

The future of Catalonia outside of Spain is just as uncertain as it is inside.

It has been an energetic campaign which has threatened, energised, and empassioned with hours of debate and a quarter of voters still undecided a week before the vote.

The significance of tonight’s result will only be decided in December when Spain votes nationally for their next government. Polls suggest no one party will win a majority. Spain is now just as likely to have a right-wing government which will rebuke separatists as it is having a left-wing government which will negotiate a new deal for Catalonia.

To hold secessionist politicians to account will be Ciutadans, which firmly rejects Catalan independence. It has been a huge rise in fortunes for a party with humble beginnings. Ciutadans has captured the imagination of anti-independence Catalans in a way that traditional socialist parties have failed. They will remind Junts Pel Sí that there is a sizeable anti-independence movement in Catalonia which have to be listened to.

This last week of frantic campaigning was riddled with an embarrassing number of blunders courtesy of those who have tried to undermine the viability of an independent Catalonia.

It started with a radio interview with Mariano Rajoy, who couldn’t be sure if Catalans would lose Spanish citizenship in the event of secession. Footage from the exchange showed a startled, exposed prime minister who stumbled through a response to an article in the Spanish Constitution which states that nobody of Spanish origin can be deprived of their nationality.

Spain’s magna carta drawn up in 1978 has been the subject of much criticism. It is the roadblock for separatists, preventing the realisation of their ambitions.

An attempt by Spanish banks to persuade pro-independence campaigns to change their mind by appealing to their wallets was seen by skeptics as nothing more than lucky timing. A group of leading banks warned of the risks of an independent Catalonia – some of the same banks that a few years ago refused to enter the debate.

Calming words for Catalans came from the head of the Bank of Spain, who clarified threats of capital controls in an independent Catalonia as being “highly unlikely”.

Artur Mas addressed a crowd on Wednesday, saying: “This time, the weapons of destruction employed by Madrid will not triumph in Catalonia.”

He continued: “They will not destroy our dignity. They will not destroy our project. They will not destroy our dream. They will not destroy our excitement. They will not destroy Catalonia’s freedom.”

With so much unknown, tomorrow will be just as important – if not more – than today.

The towering figures of Europe and Madrid have yet to speak.

Greece’s election to end all elections – for now

A hastily arranged three-week election campaign in a country now apathetic towards its political class for the unbearable burden of reforms and austerity. This Greek election is being seen as nothing more than a mirage for the country’s creditors who are running the show. What the country needs now is a period of political stability.

A late swing towards Syriza in the polls is being reported today, after barely any space between the leftist party and its conservative rival, New Democracy. What’s more, they can do nothing more to convince the Greek people, as campaigning drew to an end with roaring rallies in squares in the Greek capital, Athens.

A new mandate for Syriza would mean a measure of credibility after signing off the country’s finances to international creditors this summer, staving off a Grexit apocalypse, which seems to be far from the horizon. They are at the behest of the Eurozone machine and Germany, who expect any new government to fully comply with pressing reforms. Warnings from the European Commission were just as unyielding.

It is probable that coalition talks will have to begin as the mist clears on Monday morning and results become clear – neither party is expected to win a majority. Expect no coalition between Syriza and New Democracy – their economic policies differ greatly, and Syriza points the finger at ND for being partly responsible for the country’s economic problems, being part of the ‘old guard’. New Democracy believe Tsipras and his fractured party don’t have the will to implement reforms and that only they can be trusted to grow Greece’s economy. For its part, output is expected to contract by two per-cent despite unexpected growth of 0.8% in the second quarter of the year.

The new leader in government will be the seventh prime minister since the Greek debt crisis begin in 2009, in an electoral process which has occurred five times over in six years. It is no wonder that Greeks are experiencing a severe bout of election fatigue.

Syriza is still a relatively new party, elected untested just eight months ago. It would be unfair for them to assume the blame for years and years of economic mismanagement beforehand. Tsipras put it quite humorously – it’s like someone who drank three bottles of whisky and a shot of vodka then claiming it was the vodka that had given him a hangover. It depends how well you handle your drink for this metaphor to work, of course.

One of Syriza’s key pledges is a cleaning-up exercise – a definitive end to self-serving politicians who corrupted the system, leading to the financial crisis that the same politicians claimed they were managing. It is a populist, leftist message which is not unique in Europe.

Tsipras appeared at the rally alongside Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias, pointing again to the huge European significance of Greece’s national vote. Elections in Portugal and Spain – Southern European states that were forced to seek financial assistance from Europe – have the economy at the heart of their campaign.

Spain’s anti-austerity, anti-corruption party leader Pablo Iglesias at Syriza rally event in Athens

Tsipras said: “The message of our victory will be sent to Pablo in Spain, Gerry Adams in Ireland and to a progressive prime minister in Portugal.”

Portugal exited its bailout last year with its economy steadying and growing after three years of recession. The vote there on 4th October mirrors Greece as far as the likelihood of a coalition is concerned. Neither the centre-right ruling coalition nor the centre-left opposition Socialists can claim a full majority.

In Spain, leaders can boast one of the largest eurozone growth figures for this year, as polls there are yet to hand a majority to either the ruling conservatives or opposition Socialists.

It is a sort of political paralysis as anti-establishment parties continue to fracture traditional bipartite systems.

The European left will likely use a Syriza victory to show the pernicious effect of austerity on the social fabric of a country, which will be lumbered with yet more cuts. Those out of work reached 25.2% in July in what many call a “lost generation”.

Unemployment in Portugal is roughly in line with the European average at 11%, while in Spain, it is stubbornly at 22%. In both countries, it remains the young who are the most precarious.

Any coalition government will oversee the management of Greece’s bailout, ensuring a smooth path ahead for the country’s financial system after capital controls – still in place – were imposed earlier this year when the banking system went virtually bust.

Surprisingly, market traders have scarcely been kept awake at night by the Greek vote after Tsipras’ climb-down this summer. It is accepted that any incoming leader will have no choice but to swallow the bailout pill.

Before word of elections, talk in the summer of debt restructuring or debt reduction was rife in Europe. Germany said it was out of the question, while other economists argued it was the only way to stop Greece being straddled with debts for decades to come. Will there be any movement on this when negotiations begin in earnest?

For the country’s new leader, the interminable flow of migrants to Greece’s coastline may prove to be one of the most pressing problems. Greece borders several Balkan countries which are but the latest route for thousands of people on the move.

Sunday’s election is yet another chapter in the ongoing problems for Europe, solutions for which are elusive and painful.

For more: BBC News – Key Greece election on a knife edge

Some thoughts on the Catalan question

Ten days remain before Catalonia decides fundamentally the direction of travel for the region – unity with the rest of Spain, or more probably, a path leading towards further confrontation with the Madrid government and the creation of a new state.

Here are some thoughts on how the campaign and debate are developing:

• Madrid is ramping up the rhetoric on an international scale to demonstrate how isolated an independent Catalonia could be. Comments from the leaders of Germany, Britain, and latterly US President Barack Obama that have unanimously called for unity in Spain, and to obey the rule of law, have been used endlessly to ring alarm bells. Do these ‘voices’ have any currency in a campaign which has been dominated by a vibrant debate from within Spain?
• Investor concern is rising in Spain with the constant war of words between Madrid and Barcelona. Important to note it is as much to do with the December national elections, which has the ruling PP party and Socialist PSOE opposition on a knife-edge in polls. A majority for any party is not on the cards for the moment, hence the uncertainty.
• The momentum seems to be gathering with pro-independence Junts Pel Sí nearing a majority  – maybe even without the help of other parties to get over the line. Polls in the coming days will judge further this consolidation.
• Junts Pel Sí assured anti-independence candidates of the economic viability of an independent Catalonia. However on Friday, some of Spain’s biggest banks, including Caixabank, Santander, BBVA and Sabadell, questioned their presence in Catalonia in the event of independence. They warned of financial risks in the event of victory for Junts Pel Sí. The economic influence is undoubtedly significant, but hardly new.
• Television debates prove to be very different affairs to their British or American equivalents. A more measured discussion which overtly avoids sound bites or grand gestures, one in which candidates themselves dictate the direction of the debate. It is comparatively less superficial and lacking in hype, though with so many candidates, hours of discussion can be difficult to get into. One commentator called last night’s televised debate “impossible”. I highly doubt for the most part that they sway any voting intention.
• Sometimes accused of being unintentionally pro-independence, Catalan state broadcaster TV3 has been ordered by a Spanish election board to give coverage to anti-independence parties on Sunday, given the extensive coverage of the region’s national day which was dominated by pro-independence demonstrations organised at the grassroots. Social media has rallied against this ruling with a television boycott.

The divide in coverage for pro- and anti-independence parties

• With the Catalan language dominant in the region’s media, is this in any way preventing a wider debate with non-Catalan speakers, even if the language is intelligible for most? President Mas pledged to protect the rights of Spanish speakers, as his coalition bloc has lately been fielding for more support among non-Catalan speakers. An interesting thought.
• One year on since the Scottish independence vote produced a ‘no’ decision with 55% against the break-up of the UK, there have been reports that the Scottish National Party are considering a second referendum on independence in its 2016 election manifesto. This in light of the party’s massive mandate delivered in May’s general election, which virtually wiped out Labour in Scotland. A risky move on either side of the debate, as one study shows a 51:49 split, the slim majority against independence. Events in Scotland were keenly followed in Catalonia. Will the Catalan election reignite the debate with their Scottish counterparts?
• The debate balances on the real – the current – and the hypothetical – the future. The anti-independence Ciudadanos candidate said that realistic solutions are needed, not science fiction. It is the inevitable difficulty for the pro-independence that they are arguing about an as-yet non-existent state, which brings either hope or disaster. It is the voter’s decision to judge possibility and probability where answers are often rhetorics or conjecture.
• The question over the status of an independent Catalonia in or out of the European Union is one which will not go away. You could accuse Junts Pel Sí of complacency in as much as you could accuse their opponents of scaremongering. An important thing in all this – there is no precedent in the European Union history books,  and thus far no voices from the European Union that have yet said that Catalonia would remain in the EU. The fact that the issue is so widely debated points to no one clear conclusion.
• The European Commission affirmed it wouldn’t influence the Catalan elections and would be prepared to negotiate with democratically-elected parties.
• Ciudadanos is campaigning on the unity of local issues – health, education, corruption, unemployment – that affect all Catalans. They are lone voices in a debate dominated by the existential in/out question. What role will everyday issues play in people’s minds?

More than a quarter of voters remain undecided. How long this significant chunk of the electorate has left to make such an historically significant decision is running out, as the intensity and brutality of the campaign increases.