The Catalan independence cataclysm

The Catalan independence cataclysm

Forget for a moment the huge hype and expectation surrounding today. Hearing the calls from the Catalan parliament for a declaration of independence, the first steps towards a new European state and then a constitutional block from Madrid, you’d think it nothing out of the ordinary for a secessionist movement with more momentum than ever before.

The language was just as uncompromising and provocative, talking of the “democratic disconnection” of Catalonia from the rest of Spain.

The Catalan parliament’s approval of a move towards independence within 18 months was met with the waving of Catalan senyera flags, some deputies on their feet in applause, a minority sober in defeat instead waving the national Spanish flag. Yet proceedings were noticeably much more muted than in the past.

Today’s constitutional earthquake will send tremors all the way to Madrid as Barcelona hastily embarks on setting up state institutions such as an independent social security system and tax authority within just thirty days.

But have things really changed in Catalonia as to the likelihood of independence?

What will follow is the next episode in the strained relationship between this region and the Madrid government, who will slap down the rules of the Constitution, with the courts preparing a case against leaders in Barcelona.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy appeared in front of cameras minutes after the vote repeating that “the government will not allow this to continue” and saying he will use all legal and political means at his disposal to put a stop to the process.

The inconstitutional snub was echoed by Socialist Party leader Pedro Sánchez, who will meet Rajoy on Tuesday to discuss their counter-attack.

Sánchez said: “The majority of Catalans don’t want secession. Breaking the law is denying democracy.”

Regardless, the document says it will ignore any such threats from instutitions of the Spanish state, including the constitutional court.

The embattled Catalan President, Artur Mas
The embattled Catalan President, Artur Mas

The extraordinary events in the Catalan parliament in Barcelona also addressed the elephant in the room – the future of president Artur Mas, whose political future looks to be hanging in the balance.

The CUP, the coalition partner of Junts Pel Sí, the pro-independence coalition who won a majority in September’s elections oppose Mr Mas serving a third term as President.

Negotiations with the leftist,  anti-establishment, anti-EU party haven’t got very far since the elections, but Mas is trying his best to win them over with policy sweeteners in what critics call a vanity project.

They are calling for another leader to be appointed, perhaps Junts Pel Sí leader Raul Romeva. But if an agreement isn’t found, yet more elections will have to be called for March next year.

Mas has embodied the defiant push for Catalan independence, buoyed by a pro-independence win in the September elections on a seat basis, but falling short of a majority he would have needed in a proper referendum – pro-independence parties won 47.8 per cent of the vote.

Nonetheless, beginning his address to the Parlament, he said the ballot boxes had spoken, legitimising the majority vote that was to come.

Critics of Mas say he has isolated himself from Catalan public opinion, which evidently remains deeply divided on the issue of secession. Business leaders too say that with his majority only assured by the CUP party, he has handed the independence movement to leftist radicals.

Anti-independence party Ciudadanos, the second-largest party in the Catalan parliament that looks set to rock the boat in Spain’s general election on 20th December, ironically said that ongoing cases of corruption – of which Mr Mas is part – have nothing to do with the process.

They warned today’s events were the greatest threat to Spain’s democracy for the past thirty years.

The last election is only as important as the next. With the make-up of Spain’s next government unclear and with coalition agreements expected to extend well into January, parties of all colours are exploiting the Catalan situation to gain votes.

Aside from Spain’s economic recovery, the unity of Spain is a key election trump card, especially for Rajoy. He wants to be seen as the leader who stands for stability and managing the breakaway Catalan region.

The constitutional fallout from the defiance on show could mean tough financial sanctions – even on individual leaders, which could potentially mean prison sentences.

It could also sour any potential negotiations between leaders in Catalonia and the next Spanish government.

Pro-independence politicians remain more defiant and determined than ever. For Madrid, it’s another case of closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.

This struggle of democracy against democracy is a long way from ending.

Catalonia – and Spain’s – uncharted territory

Catalonia – and Spain’s – uncharted territory

Relations between Catalonia and the rest of Spain have changed forever, whatever the result of today’s unprecedented elections.

The make-up of the Catalan parliament will have been decided by a huge voter turnout – a triumph of democracy.

Tonight’s exit poll gives an absolute majority to separatist coalition Junts Pel Sí, with the help of far-left, anti-EU, anti-NATO party CUP, who are this election’s kingmakers. It is an election with the most obvious of outcomes, though caution remains, as even the two parties together may not gain 50% of the votes.

A nation waiting in nail-biting anticipation of how Madrid will react the morning after the night before. With over 60% of Catalans having voted, separatists will vaunt their firm mandate. How ambitious will they be with their demands? The tone of debate will be fiery to say the least.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will play the constitutional card in an election which he has scorned for having become a de facto yes or no vote.

His conservative party will have roughly the same number of seats as Sí Que Es Pot, a coalition of leftist parties which in their political youth would have hoped to have made far more of an impact. Both will be disappointed.

The extent of victory for separatists will damage the prime minister’s credibility after refusing any movement on Spain’s current constitutional arrangements. Will Rajoy change his tune – faced with this electoral explosion?

While financial markets and bond yields will likely wobble as they have done already, Catalan independence is still a while away. While the plan is to start the task of building national structures within Catalonia as part of an 18-month roadmap to complete secession, there are lots of hopes but no guarantees. Junts Pel Sí will plough on ahead with or without the permission of Madrid.

The future of Catalonia outside of Spain is just as uncertain as it is inside.

It has been an energetic campaign which has threatened, energised, and empassioned with hours of debate and a quarter of voters still undecided a week before the vote.

The significance of tonight’s result will only be decided in December when Spain votes nationally for their next government. Polls suggest no one party will win a majority. Spain is now just as likely to have a right-wing government which will rebuke separatists as it is having a left-wing government which will negotiate a new deal for Catalonia.

To hold secessionist politicians to account will be Ciutadans, which firmly rejects Catalan independence. It has been a huge rise in fortunes for a party with humble beginnings. Ciutadans has captured the imagination of anti-independence Catalans in a way that traditional socialist parties have failed. They will remind Junts Pel Sí that there is a sizeable anti-independence movement in Catalonia which have to be listened to.

This last week of frantic campaigning was riddled with an embarrassing number of blunders courtesy of those who have tried to undermine the viability of an independent Catalonia.

It started with a radio interview with Mariano Rajoy, who couldn’t be sure if Catalans would lose Spanish citizenship in the event of secession. Footage from the exchange showed a startled, exposed prime minister who stumbled through a response to an article in the Spanish Constitution which states that nobody of Spanish origin can be deprived of their nationality.

Spain’s magna carta drawn up in 1978 has been the subject of much criticism. It is the roadblock for separatists, preventing the realisation of their ambitions.

An attempt by Spanish banks to persuade pro-independence campaigns to change their mind by appealing to their wallets was seen by skeptics as nothing more than lucky timing. A group of leading banks warned of the risks of an independent Catalonia – some of the same banks that a few years ago refused to enter the debate.

Calming words for Catalans came from the head of the Bank of Spain, who clarified threats of capital controls in an independent Catalonia as being “highly unlikely”.

Artur Mas addressed a crowd on Wednesday, saying: “This time, the weapons of destruction employed by Madrid will not triumph in Catalonia.”

He continued: “They will not destroy our dignity. They will not destroy our project. They will not destroy our dream. They will not destroy our excitement. They will not destroy Catalonia’s freedom.”

With so much unknown, tomorrow will be just as important – if not more – than today.

The towering figures of Europe and Madrid have yet to speak.